I could not help but laugh this morning, reading how the Chief Minister (CM) of an Indian State Arunachal Pradesh defected from the Congress party with some 21 elected members to join a regional party supporting the BJP (opposition). In a way, the CM has 59 out of 60 seats in his support. This comes just 2 months after the Congress legally wrestled itself back in power with the Courts ruling in its favour. The State has seen a fair bit of political drama in the last few months, including the suicide of Mr. Pul, the person who became Chief Minister of the State for just a few days. I wonder if the drama is over?
Meanwhile, the politics in the State of Uttar Pradesh is getting fairly twisted too with Yadav senior and junior trying to assert "who is the Daddy" of the State. Will Akhilesh end up breaking away from his father's shadow and party, and align with Rahul Gandhi and his merry Congressmen in the State elections of 2017? Or, will Akhilesh's brave move motivate Rahul to do something similar? Such miracles are known to happen in politics, and for once BJP would be praying that it does not. Though, it would be praying of course that the water wars in the two southern States of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka play out in its favour.
Talking about the state of miracles, there may be a mega-miracle happening far away from our very own USI (Ununited States of India) in the nation of miracles called the USA.
The miracle of miracles that I am referring to is of course that all Trump supporters are praying for; Hillary will drop out of the Presidential race. Fighting Bernie Sanders then, will it be a cakewalk for Trump to the White House? I wouldn't advise the Trumpeters to open the bubbly as Sanders could be the one celebrating Woodstock in Washington. He has done the unexpected right thing by making friends with all Clinton supporters (by supporting her candidature of course), and there are plenty of Republicans who don't want Trump as President if Clinton is not the next best choice.
Finally, do I keep or chuck my Euros? Now, this question was posed to the Italians. The real ones, not the ones in India.
Saturday, September 17, 2016
Saturday, September 10, 2016
Will the real "Son of a Whore" please stand up.
He first challenged Donald Trump to a fist fight for calling a ban on Filipinos from entering the US; he then went on to slur President Obama for taking up the issue of "endorsed" extra-judicial killings of drug abusers in the Philippines. Well, apologies and denials by him have followed, but he has earned his country and himself some four days of negative fame globally. Did Duterte say what he did to prove something to his people? Did he think his sinking ratings would go up? After all "breaking bad" is in vogue. Good of him not to have threatened President Obama with extra-judicial killing for having experimented with weed in his college days.
President Obama, however, is made of better stuff. He comes across as very dignified, humble, and a man with a great sense of humour. More so, he seems to be quite forgiving. He forgave Hillary for her racial slurs against him in the 2008 elections, and he forgave Mr T too for calling him the worst President in US history. Forgave or not, he did meet his latest offender too, where the latter sought pardon and called it one big misunderstanding. Lately, the use of politically correct and parliamentary language has taken a back seat if not entirely pushed out of the car, even by the best educated.
President Duterte, a very educated man, a lawyer, had been expelled from a couple of schools for misconduct, which could be interpreted as smashing a square peg in a round hole. It is possibly the same attitude that has got him this far in politics in a nation notorious for an extremely high crime rate, which most experts believe has police, political and even judicial backing. In such a situation, would a tame parliamentarian survive? When the law becomes the very tool for the lawless to prosper and fails to protect the innocent, does the system not gravitate towards abandoning the legal system and do what is needed to restore the right order? Tough questions. In the long run, the vigilantism slips into excesses. No one obeys the law and extra-judicial methods only encourage settling of personal scores, more human rights violations, an even greater rebuttal by those with power; the result, total anarchy in society. In this case too, hard to tell if drug offences will go down. In my own nation too, there has been a crackdown on corruption. Frankly, at one level I would have wished our leader too endorsed the extra-judicial killing of the corrupt given its rise, but thankfully that's not the case. It keeps the faith alive in the system. It's a different matter that corruption has actually gone up and not down after the crackdown measures have been put in place. There is growing anger and impatience waiting and wanting to vent, and those in power, the world over have to cure and not exploit it. One can only hope we don't drift in a different direction, though the latest violent attacks on police personnel for enforcing law and order is pointing at a very frightening social order ahead in time.
The world was more or less outraged by the "son of a whore remark", but does the world show the same outrage when most US services (naval) personnel still consider Duterte's nation as a country of prostitutes? Something to think about when the leaders of many powerful nations are themselves guilty of showering leaders of various less powerful nations and organisations with derogatory names and titles that sound worse than being called a "son of a whore or bitch or gun or whatever."
President Obama, however, is made of better stuff. He comes across as very dignified, humble, and a man with a great sense of humour. More so, he seems to be quite forgiving. He forgave Hillary for her racial slurs against him in the 2008 elections, and he forgave Mr T too for calling him the worst President in US history. Forgave or not, he did meet his latest offender too, where the latter sought pardon and called it one big misunderstanding. Lately, the use of politically correct and parliamentary language has taken a back seat if not entirely pushed out of the car, even by the best educated.
President Duterte, a very educated man, a lawyer, had been expelled from a couple of schools for misconduct, which could be interpreted as smashing a square peg in a round hole. It is possibly the same attitude that has got him this far in politics in a nation notorious for an extremely high crime rate, which most experts believe has police, political and even judicial backing. In such a situation, would a tame parliamentarian survive? When the law becomes the very tool for the lawless to prosper and fails to protect the innocent, does the system not gravitate towards abandoning the legal system and do what is needed to restore the right order? Tough questions. In the long run, the vigilantism slips into excesses. No one obeys the law and extra-judicial methods only encourage settling of personal scores, more human rights violations, an even greater rebuttal by those with power; the result, total anarchy in society. In this case too, hard to tell if drug offences will go down. In my own nation too, there has been a crackdown on corruption. Frankly, at one level I would have wished our leader too endorsed the extra-judicial killing of the corrupt given its rise, but thankfully that's not the case. It keeps the faith alive in the system. It's a different matter that corruption has actually gone up and not down after the crackdown measures have been put in place. There is growing anger and impatience waiting and wanting to vent, and those in power, the world over have to cure and not exploit it. One can only hope we don't drift in a different direction, though the latest violent attacks on police personnel for enforcing law and order is pointing at a very frightening social order ahead in time.
The world was more or less outraged by the "son of a whore remark", but does the world show the same outrage when most US services (naval) personnel still consider Duterte's nation as a country of prostitutes? Something to think about when the leaders of many powerful nations are themselves guilty of showering leaders of various less powerful nations and organisations with derogatory names and titles that sound worse than being called a "son of a whore or bitch or gun or whatever."
Monday, August 29, 2016
It's August 2016 already - and there is no let up in SNAFU
The US of A shakes the world with Yellen, Clinton and Trump.
Yellen's Fed rate hike or President Hillary or Donald will make us grump.
The "British are going, the British are going", the world can hear Eurozone yell.
Will they lose many more members now, post-Brexit no one can really tell.
Terror and refugees are Europe's immediate fears.
The world is watching how this crisis France and Germany steers.
No "charge of the light brigade" in this new Crimean war.
It's Russia versus Ukraine in a brotherhood gone sour.
Moving on to Turkey, it's not having fun.
Terror attacks, coup, Syria and Kurds have it living by the gun.
In a grip of radicals, much of Levant is drenched in blood.
Of senseless killing and bombs, there is a flood.
For the rest of the Middle East has been in a boil
from the heat wave, and not just prices of oil.
Pakistan and India engaged in a perennial spar,
Be it Balochistan or Kashmir, a solution to crisis, seems too far.
Sensitive India is full of insensitive debates.
Be it meat, Olympics, cows, Dalits, or GST rebates.
The might of China flexes itself on islands in the South China sea.
It's not a matter it wants to discuss on a cup of tea.
The dragon seems to be sinking deeper in economic blues.
The rest of Asia may follow in ones and twos.
While North Korea keeps sending missiles up.
Japan's stock market seems to be cracking up.
Venezuela is staring squarely at doomsday
Brazil post-Olympics may not be far away.
The dark continent once looked like a bright spot.
El Nino changed it, and in a drought its caught.
ANZ, have not too much to worry about.
Even though their economies show some doubt.
The entire world looks like it's turned to hell
No place safe for one to dwell.
Of course,
The 1% super rich guys can afford to guffaw
While 99% live in a world of SNAFU*
*Situation Normal All F@&ked Up.
Yellen's Fed rate hike or President Hillary or Donald will make us grump.
The "British are going, the British are going", the world can hear Eurozone yell.
Will they lose many more members now, post-Brexit no one can really tell.
Terror and refugees are Europe's immediate fears.
The world is watching how this crisis France and Germany steers.
No "charge of the light brigade" in this new Crimean war.
It's Russia versus Ukraine in a brotherhood gone sour.
Moving on to Turkey, it's not having fun.
Terror attacks, coup, Syria and Kurds have it living by the gun.
In a grip of radicals, much of Levant is drenched in blood.
Of senseless killing and bombs, there is a flood.
For the rest of the Middle East has been in a boil
from the heat wave, and not just prices of oil.
Pakistan and India engaged in a perennial spar,
Be it Balochistan or Kashmir, a solution to crisis, seems too far.
Sensitive India is full of insensitive debates.
Be it meat, Olympics, cows, Dalits, or GST rebates.
The might of China flexes itself on islands in the South China sea.
It's not a matter it wants to discuss on a cup of tea.
The dragon seems to be sinking deeper in economic blues.
The rest of Asia may follow in ones and twos.
While North Korea keeps sending missiles up.
Japan's stock market seems to be cracking up.
Venezuela is staring squarely at doomsday
Brazil post-Olympics may not be far away.
The dark continent once looked like a bright spot.
El Nino changed it, and in a drought its caught.
ANZ, have not too much to worry about.
Even though their economies show some doubt.
The entire world looks like it's turned to hell
No place safe for one to dwell.
Of course,
The 1% super rich guys can afford to guffaw
While 99% live in a world of SNAFU*
*Situation Normal All F@&ked Up.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Dangerous New World Order
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| Pic. credit: War for the Planet of the Apes |
Surprise! Or should I say no surprise? Mr Trump is now a step away from being labelled as the most powerful man on this planet. Should he win, I wonder if he would thank the Men in Black from the lands of "SadAss" for proving his point, on the need for a new "apartheid". On the other hand, I am pretty sure that even if Trump does not win, the latter group would be certainly be thanking him more than the Malevolent God they follow, for sending more and more confused souls into their fold. Either way, it has wrongly tarnished and angered the world's largest religious group. Dangerous. For many great minds, the world is in a state of World War III. It is not a war of nations, but one of ideology and the enemy is entrenched deep within. Does this sound like a prophecy from Nostradamus? If it is, I think it is a self-fulfilling one.
Nowadays, I refrain from thanking God but thank heavens that the credit for the unfortunate Dallas and Baton Rouge killings earlier this month (July 2016) were not accredited to any race or terror group. Though attempts to label the killers as "radicalised" are still underway by the media wanting to create a bench banging story. In doing so, the world is actually ignoring a deeper festering wound that is infecting societies around the world; one of deep dormant discontent and helplessness with the growing power and greed of governance. Both the killers were ex-soldiers who decided to take matters into their own hands, to make what they thought was a point. Both must have known that they would not survive, and in their own mind, they must have justified it as though they were fighting a just battle. Media called them mentally unsound.
Such stories make international headlines when it happens in the US or any nation where even a single life has value. One can only assume how many such stories go unreported around the world, especially in the countries that are labelled as the "third world", where life is cheap and expendable.
Well, that label reminds me of the City I live in. Officially, it is the richest, most cosmopolitan, most liveable in India, and serves as home to several dollar billionaires. But, in today's context, the moon would have fewer craters than its roads. Each year billions are spent by its governing officials on building roads and probably twice as much repairing them each monsoon. It is the worst kept secret on where most of the money spent ends up. Bad roads have cost lives, probably more than what are attributed to police atrocities. The system, like in any country, designed to protect its own, even when at fault.
I was recently told of an incident that to uplift the quality of life of tribals in Arunachal Pradesh, a Government officer recommended that money should be spent on creating fish hatcheries, supporting his claims with statistics and reports. Accepting his proposal the Government released shit loads of money for the creation of the same. A couple of years later, the officer who succeeded him decided to inspect the marvels created by his predecessor, only to find them non-existent. What does he do? he files a report that fish breeding is having an adverse effect on the fragile ecology and proposed that the fish ponds should be destroyed and money for rehabilitating those affected be disbursed. He got his request granted too. This is not an isolated incident. Each day, its news of how people appointed to uplift the population are enriching themselves at the cost of those who elected them. From simply stealing from the public till to being showered with social injustice in plenty, people are annoyed. Not just in India, everywhere around the world.
The ex-soldiers may have taken drastic measures in retaliation of what they thought was drastic. Is the Venezuelan situation not drastic? Is the suicide of farmers in India not drastic? Is the situation in many Middle Eastern and African nations not drastic? Is the situation in much of Europe not drastic? The world is staring at the uncertainty of water, food, air, jobs, security, and everything that makes up a civilised society.
How much time before people around the world decide to go the ex-soldiers' way? Has greed blinded the powerful so much that the basic issues of humanity are going unaddressed? Will it give way to a dangerous new world order?
We are in a state of World War III. It is not nation versus nation or ideology versus ideology, simply the axis of power and greed versus the helplessness of much of humanity, at the end of which we may be left no better than apes.
It's official: Donald Trump is the Republican Party's nominee for president
Five Dallas Officers Were Killed as Payback, Police Chief Says
Baton Rouge shooting: 3 officers dead; shooter was Missouri man, sources say
Thursday, July 14, 2016
May? No, Certainly Will - Maybe.
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| Pic Credit: Heatstreet http://heatst.com/uk/donald-trump-and-theresa-may-have-beef-shes-chill-with-hillary-though/ |
With Theresa May taking over as the Prime Minister of the still United Kingdom the may in Brexit is pretty much gone, and it now looks like a certainty. Well almost. After her fire and brimstone talk on day 1 as PM, water was poured to cool the rethoric post meeting with her Scottish counterpart. (Maybe May was cautioned by the Queen). She has already been labelled the "Iron Lady II' and that title may just again be put on hold for now. Not many are pleased by her resurrection of the politically dead Boris Johnson, a hardcore Brexitier as Foreign Minister. What does this mean for the rest of the world? Nothing more than some more speculation.
The World has bigger things to worry about; like the November Hillary versus Trump fight for one, now that Mr Sanders has decided to stand firmly behind Mrs C. Looks like the world may just be looking at the ultimate in woman empowerment. I say may and not certainly will as anything can happen in an election. Brexit showed us that.
If it does happen, will Mrs. C earn the title of "SuperWoman"? She can't be called "Iron Maiden", that would be too confusing, as the real fan of heavy metal music happens to be her opponent. So will she "Roar" loud enough to leave Mr. Trump "Stone Cold" with a "Heart Attack"? She is "Confident" she can, as she is not a "Dark Horse". She has been telling the voters "Believe in me" for she is a "Fire starter" and knows how to "Make a wave". "Don't Forget" she "Really don't care" what the world thinks of her, she thinks she is "One of the Boys" and anyone else's opinion "Will not change a thing". Pretty sure she must be saying "This is me" and, "I think I am ready" to be President to herself, like she may have sung "I hate you, don't leave me" to Bill.
"So here we go again", presidential elections "Made in the USA", two candidates playing in the "world of chances" while their own "two worlds collide" making the voters go "hot and cold" with each passing day. Do they have what "Legends are made of"? There is still some time for the final "Fireworks" and one of them to say "Hello" as the most powerful man or woman on earth.
Well, I read that Mrs C's taste in music has changed completely since 2011. Her likes include Katy Perry, Demi Lovato and Adele. I wonder if the campaign had anything to do with it? Influenced by what one calls electorate demographics. I may be "Right as rain" in my assumption. All I can say to Mrs C is that "He won't go" without a fight, that is Mr T. Unlike Sanders who I thought would stand tall as a "Lionheart", he won't say "That's it, I quit, I am moving on". He is no "Day dreamer" and is great at "Turning Tables". He is used to the glare of "Neon lights" and has built many a "Skyscrapers". His words have "Set fire to the rain" and "Rumour has it" that he has "Got Dynamite" expose to take you down, saving the "best for last". He is after all the "One and Only" Donald Trump.
"I'll be waiting" to see who is the one to "Take it all" and cause a "Skyfall", because both of you come in "Many shades of black" and your policies may blow this world to "Kingdom come". "Fool that I am", did I say May? No, you certainly will.
I am not just "Painting pictures" of doom and gloom. So while "it's not too late", "All I ask" with "Sweetest Devotion" to "Stop the world" from becoming another "La La Land"
Finally congratulations Theresa May, and may you rule your Country well.
Trivia : Can you spot the songs by three of Hillary's and my favourite singers?
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
BREXITUS NON EXIRE - An Independence no one wants.
I don't think Victor Frankenstein had as much regret as David Cameron for letting loose the Brexit referendum. My own personal view is that his quick and emotional resignation was a staged exercise in damage control for the unexpected result. It is exactly what the Greek PM did after such an exercise there, and he is still around. Stepping down has brought the nation some valuable time before it triggers Article 50, much to the ire of the EU Parliament that wants Britain out as of yesterday. Unlike the politicians the football team heard that voice loud and clear and exited itself out of the Euro Cup with a loss to underdogs Iceland.
Unlike what I have heard that the Brit leaders were "stupid" and "irresponsible", I think David and team (DC) have been very clever. His team now knows:
A) Friends and Foes within and in Greater Europe.
B) The mood of the United Kingdom.
C) Its bargaining SWOT.
D) The regret of the people after the party.
E) The economic mood around the globe, post the event.
With all cards open on the table DC can know call the Royal Flush.
Most markets around the world have recovered strongly having judged that this event is another one like the US Fed rate and will take a decade to have any real impact, leave alone a disastrous one.
The call for a second referendum had gotten louder and louder each day. The result of the first one itself, a close one, is really not binding. More so, it would be very strange for a Nation to follow the voice of a simple wafer thin majority rather than a greater than 2/3rd. Under the circumstances, a vote in the Parliament may carry more weight in deciding the nation's future.
With the three other nations that form a part of the UK wanting to take a relook at their own relationship with England over the exit from Europe, the Queen too may think of reading the Magna Carta or such document to figure out if the House of Windsor can take centre stage again or does such a break up also signal the formal end of monarchy in toto?
The European mainlanders are in no mood to negotiate a loving divorce full of concessions that allows Britain to bake andeat its cake too. The billigerence from the founders was not something that the second largest economy within the Union had expected. One thing for sure, the EU Parliament will get stricter with its members in terms of enforcing full integration which may include currency as well. Will that help or hurt the cause, that is the bigger question.
While all roads do point to an Exit, I am sensing a diversion of sorts that takes this drama on a road to nowhere, and the only sane decision for those on the go would be to pray for a safe and tame return back into the fold.
If the blasts in Turkey last evening are any indication, Europe has more than BREXIT to think about right now.
Unlike what I have heard that the Brit leaders were "stupid" and "irresponsible", I think David and team (DC) have been very clever. His team now knows:
A) Friends and Foes within and in Greater Europe.
B) The mood of the United Kingdom.
C) Its bargaining SWOT.
D) The regret of the people after the party.
E) The economic mood around the globe, post the event.
With all cards open on the table DC can know call the Royal Flush.
Most markets around the world have recovered strongly having judged that this event is another one like the US Fed rate and will take a decade to have any real impact, leave alone a disastrous one.
The call for a second referendum had gotten louder and louder each day. The result of the first one itself, a close one, is really not binding. More so, it would be very strange for a Nation to follow the voice of a simple wafer thin majority rather than a greater than 2/3rd. Under the circumstances, a vote in the Parliament may carry more weight in deciding the nation's future.
With the three other nations that form a part of the UK wanting to take a relook at their own relationship with England over the exit from Europe, the Queen too may think of reading the Magna Carta or such document to figure out if the House of Windsor can take centre stage again or does such a break up also signal the formal end of monarchy in toto?
The European mainlanders are in no mood to negotiate a loving divorce full of concessions that allows Britain to bake andeat its cake too. The billigerence from the founders was not something that the second largest economy within the Union had expected. One thing for sure, the EU Parliament will get stricter with its members in terms of enforcing full integration which may include currency as well. Will that help or hurt the cause, that is the bigger question.
While all roads do point to an Exit, I am sensing a diversion of sorts that takes this drama on a road to nowhere, and the only sane decision for those on the go would be to pray for a safe and tame return back into the fold.
If the blasts in Turkey last evening are any indication, Europe has more than BREXIT to think about right now.
Friday, June 24, 2016
Happy BREXIT Day
| Pic Credit: |
Truly for Britain, 24th of June may well be its second independence from its own, the first from its own Monarchy and now from its own membership in the European Union (EU). Like it has maintained the face of Monarchy for strategic reasons, it may maintain its links to the EU as well in some form or the other. The big two of the EU, France and Germany may fret and fume, but punishing Britain for exiting is only going to make things worse for the Union. The big two may now have to deal with some of the more integrated EU members wanting to leave, in addition to an increasing voice in their own boundaries that EU is not such a great idea.
The economic community does not seem to share the view of the British people, and markets around the world are falling as loudly as nine pins, India included. My mailbox has received a barrage of emails from my wealth advisers this morning on how I should behave under such circumstances. 33% have recommended I BUY, 33% have suggested I SELL, and 33% trying to convince me to stay NEUTRAL. The balance 1% view is my own, and I think I need to act as I see fit under the circumstances.
I am not going to put my investment view on the blog, as my attempt at econostrology has not delivered stellar predictions. I was half wrong about Bernie Sanders emerging as the Donaldslayer, and the recovery of oil prices happened way ahead of when I thought it would. I was half right about BREXIT that it would be good if it happened but like the Scottish referendum, the vote may be twisted in favour of "STAY". While Bernie may still play some part in the final outcome of US elections and BREXIT may once again send oil prices down, I do feel that my career as an econostrologer still needs to stand the test of time to take any form of credit.
Talking about credit, I am quite sure the PR wing of ISIS must be thinking hard about how to take credit for the first of potentially many tears in the EU fabric. I am also quite sure that the new Mr T will not be booed so loudly in Scotland when he inaugurates the golf course over there. While the weight of the PIIGS in the EU may have been heavy on the minds of the British voters, the refugee crisis may have well been the last straw that broke their back. After all, Britain would be the most favoured nation to settle in for any refugee once given the right to stay in the EU.
The internet is full of the good bad and ugly of BREXIT and again I will not express my own views on the same, other than I am not unhappy that it has happened. My selfish reasons:
1. Pound takes a hit - take more holidays to the UK.
2. Euro takes a hit - take more holidays to Spain and Greece.
(1 & 2 are subject to the Indian currency climbing against the two)
3. I will feel more at ease paying visa fees for the UK and Euro zone separately. It always bugged me why my long term UK visa was never accepted for entry by the rest of Europe like the sensible Irish did.
4. I may now think of buying a holiday home in Spain if the Brits go on a selling spree.
Enough of my selfishness. I truly feel that the short term pain of the exit will result in a long-term gain for Britain even at the cost of it splintering itself in the near future. Sometimes, losses turn out to be the biggest gains. Neither Scotland, Ireland (N) or Wales will do better by joining the EU. In fact, a tiered commonwealth trading block is what Britain should be after. Despite the distances, the commonwealth nation share a more aligned ideology with the UK as compared to its Euro neighbours. That's one view and there are many others that seem to suggest the rightness in what many in the UK itself call wrong. The Prime Minister being one of them. David Cameron's resignation may add a further spin to the chaos, but the dust will settle and all such analysis forgot.
In the meantime, and until chaos prevails, billions will be made and lost. Wishing the brave British voter a "Happy BREXIT DAY"
EU referendum live: David Cameron resigns as UK shocks the world by voting for Brexit
Auxit, Frexit, Nexit? EU countries may hold referendums following 'Brexit' vote
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