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Wednesday, June 29, 2016

BREXITUS NON EXIRE - An Independence no one wants.

I don't think Victor Frankenstein had as much regret as David Cameron for letting loose the Brexit referendum. My own personal view is that his quick and emotional resignation was a staged exercise in damage control for the unexpected result. It is exactly what the Greek PM did after such an exercise there, and he is still around. Stepping down has brought the nation some valuable time before it triggers Article 50, much to the ire of the EU Parliament that wants Britain out as of yesterday. Unlike the politicians the football team heard that voice loud and clear and exited itself out of the Euro Cup with a loss to underdogs Iceland.

Unlike what I have heard that the Brit leaders were "stupid" and "irresponsible", I think David and team  (DC) have been very clever. His team now knows:

A) Friends and Foes within and in Greater Europe.
B) The mood of the United Kingdom.
C) Its bargaining SWOT.
D) The regret of the people after the party.
E) The economic mood around the globe, post the event.

With all cards open on the table DC can know call the Royal Flush.

Most markets around the world have recovered strongly having judged that this event is another one like the US Fed rate and will take a decade to have any real impact, leave alone a disastrous one.

The call for a second referendum had gotten louder and louder each day. The result of the first one itself, a close one, is really not binding. More so, it would be very strange for a Nation to follow the voice of a simple wafer thin majority rather than a greater than 2/3rd. Under the circumstances, a vote in the Parliament may carry more weight in deciding the nation's future.

With the three other nations that form a part of the UK wanting to take a relook at their own relationship with England over the exit from Europe, the Queen too may think of reading the Magna Carta or such document to figure out if the House of Windsor can take centre stage again or does such a break up also signal the formal end of monarchy in toto?

The European mainlanders are in no mood to negotiate a loving divorce full of concessions that allows Britain to bake andeat its cake too. The billigerence from the founders was not something that the second largest economy within the Union had expected. One thing for sure, the EU Parliament will get stricter with its members in terms of enforcing full integration which may include currency as well. Will that help or hurt the cause, that is the bigger question.

While all roads do point to an Exit, I am sensing a diversion of sorts that takes this drama on a road to nowhere, and the only sane decision for those on the go would be to pray for a safe and tame return back into the fold.

If the blasts in Turkey last evening are any indication, Europe has more than BREXIT to think about right now.

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