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There is a great possibility that Mr. Trump may be the next President of the United States, and going by his public views on aliens (not the extraterrestrial ones, but ones that reside on Planet Earth excluding the United States of America and its colonies) one has to be very careful about what one says about him on social media. Your visa to enter the USA may depend on it. Well being denied a visa or asylum is one thing, but to be charged with sedition in your own Country is another. I guess no one knows what amounts to sedition in India nowadays.
I thought it only happened in India, but the US Republican party seems to be getting there too. It is now busy trying to discredit its prime candidate in the running. Yes, Mr. Donald Trump. You may recall, several big names in the BJP had opposed Mr. Modi's name as its candidate for Prime Minister. Mr. Modi was opposed for his record of deeds as the Chief Minister of Gujarat and Mr. Trump for the deeds he is about to unleash once he makes it to person No. 1. But, in both cases, the people bought the respective ideologies of the two Men.
My credibility as an "Econologer" (Economic - Astrologer) is at stake. A couple of weeks back I had predicted that it will be a Sanders vs Trump fight in November. While Trump is trouncing his opponents, Mr. Sanders is facing a hard time from Ms. Clinton, like all men do. I wonder if she would give Trump a tough fight in the elections were she his opponent. It's no more a question of who will make a better President, but who is the lesser of two evils. The American population must truly be saying "God Save America" 'cause there is no one else who will.
Closer to home, Indians are praying too. The supposedly insignificant opposition is giving the supposed "Goliath" with a supposed chest of 56" a very hard time. Rahul Gandhi, under the supervision of his very intelligent mother, has trumped up enough support, even from his Party's detractors, to block the PM and his merry men from doing any form of business in the Parliament. At most times, it feels like the PM is running with a minority mandate with his Party being on the defensive on every issue, be it crucial or irrelevant for the health and happiness of India. It has reached a point where the opposition is taking credit for every good thing being done by the Government, as without the approval of the opposition, even that would not be possible. With 5 major Indian States holding elections in a couple of months, it is all but certain for now that Mr. Modi's party will not win any of them, making the opposition even stronger and more vicious in its attack on the Government. So, while God can save America in November, She may as well save India for now.
Now, what happened to the Mumbai stock market (BSE)? It looks like it needs some saving too. A week or so back, it took off like a rocket post budget. It's a different matter that it crashed like one too before it. I thought that the steady climb of oil, gold, rupee, and the Finance Minister's sweetening the deal for the salaried middle class would augur well for the market and give its rocket engines some well-needed boost. But, it seems to have run out of fuel and appears to have morphed into a ship in a stormy sea. Could it because Mr. King who fished a whole lot of money from the banks flew away to live his good times elsewhere?
My banker friends say it is profit taking so not to worry. It could well be true. After all, the financial year ends in India on 31st March and fund houses would be eager to award bonuses to the managers. Yeah! They need to buy their flashy cars before the post budget prices kick in.
Looks like there is no real good reason for it to go up or down other than screwing the retail investors it seems. Based on no real good reasons, here are some predictions for the BSE:
21st March 2016 on - Markets will pick up on ECB interest rate cuts, no Fed rate hike and a possible RBI rate cut announcement.
April 2016 - Markets will go up - told you, no real reason applies other than giving retail investors hope.
May 2016 - Markets will go down on State elections and possible BREXIT.
June 2016 - Markets will go down further on the possibility of bad monsoons, Fed rate hike scare, bad Q1 corporate results and US Presidential candidates finalization.
July 2016 - Markets will consolidate.
August 2016 - Markets will improve further on the passing of GST in the monsoon session. Mr. Modi may get his 92 seats even if he looses all 5 States.
September 2016 - Markets will go up even further depending on the noise in the US and better Q2 results.
October 2016 - Markets will go choppy for US elections.
November 2016 - Markets will correct downwards irrespective who gets elected.
December 2016 - FII managers start an early Christmas vacation.
I may be totally wrong, but this year is not looking too bright for any gains in equities. It's not just the issues in the US or India, but the entire globe going through a fair amount of pain. I did not call it a SNAFU year for nothing.
Well I may as well go on a long holiday, which I intend to. The "King of Good Times" is also doing that I suppose.
Would you read my book if I wrote one?
Hillary Clinton v Donald Trump: the looming battle for the soul of America
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BJP to name Modi as PM candidate despite Sushma, Advani's opposition
Sources say both Advani and Sushma will attend the Parliamentary Board meeting and speak out against Modi.
Sources say both Advani and Sushma will attend the Parliamentary Board meeting and speak out against Modi.
US election 2016: US Republicans express Donald Trump fears
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