BREXITUS NON EXIRE - An Independence no one wants.

I don't think Victor Frankenstein had as much regret as David Cameron for letting loose the Brexit referendum. My own personal view is that his quick and emotional resignation was a staged exercise in damage control for the unexpected result. It is exactly what the Greek PM did after such an exercise there, and he is still around. Stepping down has brought the nation some valuable time before it triggers Article 50, much to the ire of the EU Parliament that wants Britain out as of yesterday. Unlike the politicians the football team heard that voice loud and clear and exited itself out of the Euro Cup with a loss to underdogs Iceland.

Unlike what I have heard that the Brit leaders were "stupid" and "irresponsible", I think David and team  (DC) have been very clever. His team now knows:

A) Friends and Foes within and in Greater Europe.
B) The mood of the United Kingdom.
C) Its bargaining SWOT.
D) The regret of the people after the party.
E) The economic mood around the globe, post the event.

With all cards open on the table DC can know call the Royal Flush.

Most markets around the world have recovered strongly having judged that this event is another one like the US Fed rate and will take a decade to have any real impact, leave alone a disastrous one.

The call for a second referendum had gotten louder and louder each day. The result of the first one itself, a close one, is really not binding. More so, it would be very strange for a Nation to follow the voice of a simple wafer thin majority rather than a greater than 2/3rd. Under the circumstances, a vote in the Parliament may carry more weight in deciding the nation's future.

With the three other nations that form a part of the UK wanting to take a relook at their own relationship with England over the exit from Europe, the Queen too may think of reading the Magna Carta or such document to figure out if the House of Windsor can take centre stage again or does such a break up also signal the formal end of monarchy in toto?

The European mainlanders are in no mood to negotiate a loving divorce full of concessions that allows Britain to bake andeat its cake too. The billigerence from the founders was not something that the second largest economy within the Union had expected. One thing for sure, the EU Parliament will get stricter with its members in terms of enforcing full integration which may include currency as well. Will that help or hurt the cause, that is the bigger question.

While all roads do point to an Exit, I am sensing a diversion of sorts that takes this drama on a road to nowhere, and the only sane decision for those on the go would be to pray for a safe and tame return back into the fold.

If the blasts in Turkey last evening are any indication, Europe has more than BREXIT to think about right now.

Happy BREXIT Day

Pic Credit: openeurope.org.uk

I wonder if the release date of the movie "Independence  Day 2" was intentionally changed from 22nd June to 24th June to coincide with the BREXIT result? If the island had not exited the movie would claim that it has not have played any part in influencing the British voters, and now that the exit is a reality, the voters can well get carried away with that patriotic surge watching it.

Truly for Britain, 24th of June may well be its second independence from its own, the first from its own Monarchy and now from its own membership in the European Union (EU). Like it has maintained the face of Monarchy for strategic reasons, it may maintain its links to the EU as well in some form or the other. The big two of the EU, France and Germany may fret and fume, but punishing Britain for exiting is only going to make things worse for the Union. The big two may now have to deal with some of the more integrated EU members wanting to leave, in addition to an increasing voice in their own boundaries that EU is not such a great idea.

The economic community does not seem to share the view of the British people, and markets around the world are falling as loudly as nine pins, India included. My mailbox has received a barrage of emails from my wealth advisers this morning on how I should behave under such circumstances. 33% have recommended I BUY, 33% have suggested I SELL, and 33% trying to convince me to stay NEUTRAL. The balance 1% view is my own, and I think I need to act as I see fit under the circumstances.

I am not going to put my investment view on the blog, as my attempt at econostrology has not delivered stellar predictions. I was half wrong about Bernie Sanders emerging as the Donaldslayer, and the recovery of oil prices happened way ahead of when I thought it would. I was half right about BREXIT that it would be good if it happened but like the Scottish referendum, the vote may be twisted in favour of "STAY". While Bernie may still play some part in the final outcome of US elections and BREXIT may once again send oil prices down, I do feel that my career as an econostrologer still needs to stand the test of time to take any form of credit.

Talking about credit, I am quite sure the PR wing of ISIS must be thinking hard about how to take credit for the first of potentially many tears in the EU fabric. I am also quite sure that the new Mr T will not be booed so loudly in Scotland when he inaugurates the golf course over there. While the weight of the PIIGS in the EU may have been heavy on the minds of the British voters, the refugee crisis may have well been the last straw that broke their back. After all, Britain would be the most favoured nation to settle in for any refugee once given the right to stay in the EU.

The internet is full of the good bad and ugly of BREXIT and again I will not express my own views on the same, other than I am not unhappy that it has happened. My selfish reasons:

1. Pound takes a hit - take more holidays to the UK.
2. Euro takes a hit - take more holidays to Spain and Greece.
    (1 & 2 are subject to the Indian currency climbing against the two)
3. I will feel more at ease paying visa fees for the UK and Euro zone separately. It always bugged me why my long term UK visa was never accepted for entry by the rest of Europe like the sensible Irish did.
4. I may now think of buying a holiday home in Spain if the Brits go on a selling spree.

Enough of my selfishness. I truly feel that the short term pain of the exit will result in a long-term gain for Britain even at the cost of it splintering itself in the near future. Sometimes, losses turn out to be the biggest gains. Neither Scotland, Ireland (N) or Wales will do better by joining the EU. In fact, a tiered commonwealth trading block is what Britain should be after. Despite the distances, the commonwealth nation share a more aligned ideology with the UK as compared to its Euro neighbours. That's one view and there are many others that seem to suggest the rightness in what many in the UK itself call wrong. The Prime Minister being one of them. David Cameron's resignation may add a further spin to the chaos, but the dust will settle and all such analysis forgot.

In the meantime, and until chaos prevails, billions will be made and lost. Wishing the brave British voter a "Happy BREXIT DAY"

EU referendum live: David Cameron resigns as UK shocks the world by voting for Brexit

•  Michael Wilkinson, political correspondent 

24 JUNE 2016 • 8:43AM

Auxit, Frexit, Nexit? EU countries may hold referendums following 'Brexit' vote

Published time: 23 Jun, 2016 20:52