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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Unease of doing business

Okay, so the "Make in India" (MII) week got over on the 18th of Feb. 2016. The next day, there were press announcements of it being a resounding success. Over US$220 Billion dollars worth of investment committed with signed Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs). Now that is really one heck of an achievement if it does materialize. One may ask why are Indians so sceptical of handling "acchi khabar" (good news). No wonder we are nowhere close to achieving the "acche din" (good days) promised by our "Acche Pradhan Mantriji" (Good Prime Minister). After all, he always believed he will have the last laugh when his chips were down, and if no one else in India, at least, he and his party are experiencing not just good but great days, until recently of course.


There is actually a very good  reason why people believe that most of the MOUs signed will go up in flames just as the stage to open the event did. Most believe that MII was nothing more than a super hyped up version of  the "Vibrant Gujarat" event that became the signature of Mr. Modi's govt. when he was Chief Minister of the State; which in turn was a souped up version of the "Pravasi Bhartiya Divas" initiated by Mr. Modi's mentor, Mr. A. B. Vajpayee, the ex-Prime Minister of India. (Some say both were Modi's idea as both saw light of day in the year 2003). Both these events had a similar purpose. Attracting foreign and domestic capital as investments. The track record shows a dismal 13% conversion from paper to reality. With no real transparency on what exactly was signed and in which sector, it is hard to say if the sceptics will be proven right or not.

ppp ranking 2020The most optimistic do not see more than 25% of the US$ 220 billion actually rooting itself here for other reasons. First of all, most foreign companies that showed up were interested in the energy, aviation or defense sectors, none of them easy as it's not "sell to India" but "make in India", which entails technology transfer. Second, assuming that's not the case, (after all over 2,500 international and 8,000 domestic companies are claimed to have participated in the week-long multi- sectoral industrial event, apart foreign government delegations from 68 countries and business teams from 72 nations), the fabric of the much touted resurgent "India Story" has begun to definitely tear with growing intolerance,violent unrests, ad-hoc and arbitrary statutory demands on business, regression of reforms, higher levels of crime and corruption, opposition from govt.'s own alliance partners, bureaucratic hurdles and above all no change in the ease of doing business despite the government claiming "all is well". For a Nation that will occupy a place in the top 10 GDPs globally, occupying the 130th  spot out of 189 countries is hardly an accomplishment. 

India is not shining but burning and the blame falls squarely on the government that has proved so far to be inept at handling matters despite posting a massive majority in the elections some 2 years back. Global slump may be part of the problem, but that should have theoretically put India in the pole position. The business and the investment community in general must see it some other way. The pre-budget market crash today is a clear reflection of their growing concern that India is not looking at any "good times" any time soon. 

I don't have any advice for the Nation's decision makers. I think they are better placed to advise themselves. The unease being felt by the economy has now gone beyond what could have been checked within the system itself. The frustration on the street is a different situation altogether and that is a greater unease that cannot be tamed with a high and mighty hand. 



Feb 16 2016 : The Times of India (Mumbai)
TOI INTERVIEW - 

`Govts have a controlling mindset

Ease of doing biz hasn't improved'


Infosys co-founder Narayana Murthy tells TOI's Sagarika Ghose that Make in India, etc are good ideas but change in India takes time. He adds that fast economic progress cannot be made if every citizen does not feel enthusiastic

http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31804&articlexml=TOI-INTERVIEW-Govts-have-a-controlling-mindset-Ease-16022016015038


Well come to "Magnetic Maharashtra"
yes, it's not a real welcome.
It's really the "Make in India" week
cleverly we have in it, our own agenda sneak. 
We promise to make doing business easy here
as long as nothing you absolutely fear. 

A single window clearance we have 
that is, if you can find the right one.
We have agents to give you all the right help
without them you will cry and yelp.
We have land labour capital enterprise in plenty
For that we ask our share of just water and tea

Set up a business - don't ask how much time
tell us instead - How much (you can give of course). 
We have limited time to get rich,
our palms have the 5-year itch.
Strictly on "Kayedeeya pramane*" principle we work,
to open corruption we hardly shirk.

Invest on paper and take it all back
Our bankers will tell you how to get away.
This is a very progressive State
except for farmers who go Late.
Come talk to us - we are waiting for you
If nothing else, come build a public loo.

* Legal way




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