Sunday, December 25, 2016

Got 2016 Right (Almost)

It's official. I can call my self an economostrologer. I did get the global situation right in most parts even though I did goof up about Trump not making it as President or Britain not opting for a Brexit. Then there were other like me, who thought the same, and are still hoping that Trump will not get sworn in (or will get impeached in less than a 100 days); and Brexit will be disallowed by the Parliament.

Okay, I did not predict much about my own home Country, but what I did, came true. (Read previous blogs Sell! Sell! Bye! Bye! and Go on a long early vacation.)

I did take a long vacation this year, and in my complacency fail to predict that Mr. Modi would take the reins of the BJP chariot himself for a quick and dirty turnaround. India's surgical strike on terror camps across the border woke up the "Indianism" in the Indian, who had given up on his Nation's ability to back sound bytes with action. The Indianism gave way to a higher order of idealism with Modi's war on the demon called "King Cash". Demonetization, a 3 pronged attack to kill terror funding, tax evasion, and counterfeiting was greeted with 3 cheers by the people, despite the hardship it threw them in. Both his wars have yielded mixed results. Terror hasn't stopped, nor has terror funding, nor evasion, not counterfeiting. It has become a bit more difficult though for those engaged in such acts. But the big concern is that he has once again started peeving off his supporters.

Anyway, today is not a day for all this talk. It's a day when one should be glad that not many days are left in this year which did turn out to be a hell of a SNAFU one. Thankfully, all the shit that had to hit the ceiling is already up there giving all of us a lesser need to worry about predictions and or fake news.

How does it look in 2017? Not very good as of now, but all the shit around in this world is obscuring my foresight. Hopefully another short holiday will cure it. But hard as I may try to think objectively, I do feel that we better get used to living in this world that's transformed to hell. It's the Devil's own world sadly, whichever way we look, everyone is breaking bad. Does that mean I have given up hope? No way, we are yet some time away from a total FUBR situation. And, on that shred of optimism....

Merry Christmas Real Readers and Bots. (If mankind is thinking of marrying them by 2050, no harm treating them as own - don't you think?)

THE BLOG

Talk Of Impeaching Trump May Be Premature, But Its Time Will Come

12/23/2016 11:02 am ET

Bill Blum Lawyer, retired judge, novelist, columnist @truthdig and lecturer at USC Annenberg School of Communications. Progressive views on law and politics.

[This column was originally published by Truthdig.com]

The Battle for Brexit is still a long way from being over

Monday, December 19, 2016

Show Me De Money

After some serious chest thumping by Mr. Gandhi, threatening to burst the Prime Minister's balloon, by exposing him in the Parliament with charges of corruption so great, that it would cause a quake within the, the former paid the latter a visit along with his entourage to discuss the plight of farmers in UP and Punjab.

The poor farmer, always in debt, first killed himself because of crop failure due to water drought, then floods, and now because of a drought of cash. The poor farmer has been killing himself for years, even under the previous government controlled by the Gandhi family. So the awakening of consciousness for the farmer's plight does seem dubious. There were quite a few earthquakes around the world in those days when Mr. Gandhi opened his mouth, but none in the Indian Parliament.

The PM's party-men egged Mr. Gandhi to spill the beans outside of Parliament because any allegation made in the sacred well is privileged and not eligible for any form of prosecution even if otherwise libelous in nature. That very evening, when the two met though, an announcement made its way that Political Parties big and small not to be questioned about the funds garnered, or the source, from the day the demonetization of the old high value notes went into effect. Well who can then stop the tongue of the common man quacking? Did the meeting have anything to do with this announcement? If yes, had Mr. Gandhi Jr. shaken the PM in to it? Was there some other deal struck on elections in UP and Punjab concerning farming of votes in exchange of certain concesiions? Then was all of Mr. Gandhi's noise directed at getting an audience? It did happen on the shoulder of a grand opposition alliance. If not, then why did the PM say "Should always meet like this" to Mr. Gandhi and team?

Questions for which there are no real answers, and answers that by now, this nation does not really care for. It is quite evident that the war on a demon called corruption has given rise to a bigger and better form of corruption, thanks to those agencies and systems that were supposed to fight it.

Bank officials including those of the Reserve bank have assisted the exchange of money in quantum that far exceeds permissible limits. Street has it that most politicians and political parties, active or dormant went straight to the doors of the RBI to get the old notes changed. While people waited in queues to get some or no money from banks and ATMs due to shortage of currency and restrictions, politicians were transporting money in millions for friends. For a change, black cash collectors were handing ill gotten money to the very source that gave them it in the first place - for a clean up at a cost.

More gold was imported in India in the month of November than any other month of 2016, knowing well that most of the hidden wealth would want to change its colour from black to gold. However, with the announcement of to 50:50 scheme, the price of gold corrected from a high of Rs. 60,000 per 10gms some time back in cash deals to Rs. 28,000. Not only that, where old discontinued notes were being traded at a discount, now old notes are fetching a premium. There is news that the shortage of cash has forced smaller town traders to continue accepting the old stuff as legal tender. Not everyone is happy going cashless.

Real Estate never had it so good. Sales picked up and even shit was selling at a premium. Well advised, a lot of realtors declared tons of undeclared income in the IDS of September, collected tons of cash at a premium in November, and will happily paid the taxes in December. With a lot of unsold inventory gone, the promise of the much awaited price correction has become as true as the promise of a "Swacch Bharat" - free of pollution and corruption.

It's back to business as usual for this Country - if you want anything done, be ready to hear "Show me the money, and black is beautiful, as long as you paint it white please."

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

The World Is One News - FAKE.

Satire - for those who have common sense.

Once up a today, there was a fictitious world that had a fictitious place, and at some fictitious time there was a discussion between some non existent people:

'Shubprabhat (Good morning) my dear Shamitji. What is the navi taza (latest and freshest) news of the day? I am tired of hearing this news centered around the ATMa. It is hogging more front page space than the real and important news, and you don't have to do this "aarti-puja" of mine on a daily basis.'

'I am just trying to ward off any evil eye effect cast on you by your growing number of detractors.'

'Ha ha ha. Evil eye effect on me? Not possible. I am like a mirror, whatever evil they send to me, I send it back magnified, or haven't you noticed it? Anyway, let's get on with our business. How is Urja's energy level holding up?'

'He has hired some mathematicians and accountants to balance the nations books as the output of our currency is much greater than the input. If he does not balance the books correctly, we would have lost three battles of credibility with one move of yours; that is that of the nation, central bank and yourself.'

'My move? If I remember correctly, all my moves are based on your advice. It is you who told me that this is the rightest time to do it too if we want to consolidate our power for the next million years.'

'Advice is advice. Intelligent don't need it and fools don't take it.'

'Excuse me! What does that mean? Never mind, don't answer it as you are my only friend that I can trust at the moment. So tell me, what's good and bad?'

'Good news is that of the four Devis with potential to trouble you, one is gone, second is busy hiding her bags, the third is on the edge, and the most powerful fourth contemplating a move back to where she came from. Thank God, the women in our team have been tamed. The bad news is, we may have to fight the war of the western megalopolis on our own, without our traditional allies, which in some ways may not be entirely bad as our traditional foes may help us fight our former allies since you praised their leader as your mentor. What an idea Sirjee.'

'You are so right. You know, heart of heart I feel sad for the one who passed away. She was like a Goddess to her people. Thank God, the people did not mess up her kingdom. She was kind of an ally. Make an SWOT assessment of that guy whose succeeded her. The one whose name sounds like cottage cheese, and assist him in his fight with the dearly departed's sole mate, he he he, I don't want to deal with another single woman. Do turn her palatial residence into a museum. I believe she has more dresses and footwear than any other woman on our planet. For the second one, I have no sympathy. Find a way to confiscate her million bags and put them in our friend's museum too. Third one, see if we can help her in any way? I am surprised that some people buy her horrid paintings for tons of money and she can't spend some of it on better sarees and chappals like our departed friend.. Even a school kid can paint better. The fourth, may be best she leaves. Now that her puppet has found his own voice, he may talk back to her as well. Moreover, with the results of the elections in her home country, she may have realized that her son has a better chance there than over here, as he can say and do what he pleases without being made a fun of.'

'Brilliant analysis Sirjee..'

'Wait! I am not finished yet. Actually, I am. What do we do on the western front? I am sure quite a few business folks must be upset at their wealth being converted to toilet paper.'

'Sorry to disagree Sirjee. But that was all taken care of. It was not such a secret move as you thought it was. Plus, you forget, we rule a nation of such clever people. Much more creative, cleverer and corrupt than we give them credit for.'

'You are right. But the common man is suffering, what can we do for him?'

'Well let's put it this way, he asked for it. You did your bit to eradicate the corrupt, and who says that a majority of the common men are not corrupt too or a party to the corruption? Look at that common man anti-corruption crusader... once he got into power, he converted to the religion of politics in no time. Now, no one will raise the subject of corruption again for quite some time to come, as we have sent the message that "charity begins at home" never ours but theirs.'

'What a brilliant analysis Shamitji. You remind me of a mythical God who gave a sermon on the battlefield. Enough of our heart talk, some more "kadak-chai" (strong tea)? I made it myself this morning. Old habits die hard. But you do realize a few need to be made examples of?'

'Of course Sirjee. I have a list ready... And your tea, wah ustad wah! You make it the best.'

'So what do you think of the new general next door? Will he over throw my frenemy ruling that country? And... should we invite my alter ego from the western hemisphere for having won the person of the year title? I am sure he must have paid for it, else it was surely mine... don't you think? And... and.... how do we explain the high profile weddings....and.....

--------------------------------------------------------- To be read with a pinch of salt.

By the way, just heard of a new news channel called "WOIN" (World Is One News). I agree - It's all the same. Nothing really good, and that's why Fake news is in.

Monday, December 5, 2016

The Inconvenient Truth - A Satire*

December 2nd, 2016, happened to be the last day for the old Rs 500 notes at petrol bunks. There was a long queue of cars waiting to fill up, but not long enough to qualify as an inconvenient one. The car in front of me was trying to pay up in soiled/torn Rs 500 notes and the jockey was refusing to accept them. "How does it matter if they are torn? They have to go to the RBI for destruction anyway" the lady at the wheel argued. The jockey insisted on acceptable notes or else payment on the card as he suspected that the notes were fakes. Finally after holding up the line for a better of 5 minutes, the woman took out a fresh bundle of old Rs 500 notes and paid up.

I got into a conversation with the jockey and asked him why he was being so rude to the woman who had just left? "She comes here three times a day everyday for the last 10 days, each time in a different car, tanks up and pays with old notes. I think I can smell a rat even with this strong stink of gasoline fumes, and so I am careful." I started to laugh hearing him say that. Told him that demonetization has set up several new job opportunities, like queue jockey for banks and ATMs, maybe she too had struck upon an opportunity to make a quick buck. He was not amused, just said he was thankful that this misery of accepting old notes was over. The owner of the bunk had made the employees responsible for any suspect note accepted and the man I was talking to was already down Rs 2,000 for the month. I thought he would be angry and spit venom at those responsible, including the Prime Minister for the loss and inconvenience. Surprisingly, he defended the PM's action. "Do you know after how long I have tasted vegetables in my house Sir? Until 3 weeks back, Rs 100 would buy some 3 kg of tomatoes, now I can bargain for 6. Yes, it is a bit inconvenient for us drawing out money, but more and more people are going cashless. Soon there will be a cashless Bharat." Wow! Caste-less we haven't become in some 70 years of independence, reason politics; and I have the same view on becoming cashless as well, for much the same reason. But, this man had certainly booked his season ticket on the "Modi-Express".

Leaving the common man on the platform, it seems our famous Bollywood actor, the most wanted Dabaang Tiger has climbed aboard the "Swachh-Bharat Express". Tired of watching people crap in front of his house while enjoying a million dollar sea view and sea-breeze (no not because they hate his acting, rather, out of an ancient and well loved tradition of open defecation), he complained to the authorities to make it stop. In stead, he was drafted as a brand ambassador to educate people on the ills of such practise. I wonder why was he hand picked? Was it because of how he taught street dwellers a lesson on not sleeping on the pavements, or black bucks on what happens when they obstruct his view? In any event the guy always plays the role of law enforcer and ends up facing its heat in real life for no real fault of his, mostly because of what he says. Guys, give him a break, he is only "being human". The latest news is that the authorities feel that operation "cut the crap" may not succeed as the real hero (or villain) in operation "clean up the roads" was owned up by the actor's driver-less car, and in "please keep clear oh deer" - it was the auto target detecting and self firing gun, which even our army does not have that was responsible. Too bad he did not get a jail sentence, else he would have joined the league of extraordinary men who end up as rulers of men. It's okay for such men to whip out revolvers just like in "westworld'. Maybe our government should have ordered a surgical strike on those who literally stink our nation with open defecation, after all they are not bovine to receive the incentives and protection they have at the tax payer's cost.

Well, as a tax payer, I am certainly opposed to the excessive security doled out to the political community, knowing well that most of them are undeserving of the same. I saw a clip of the CM of WB screaming hysterically about what she believes is her fiefdom being attacked and annexed to India by the Indian Army. Her state did look like it was in need of some considerable help; no, not WB silly, but the state of her mind. While "Didi" may be paranoid about the presence of the army, but I do think that the Apollo hospital in Chennai will request for it to be deployed, just in case. Should anything happen to the "Amma" while in its care, there will no hospital there the next day. Well there have been strong rumors floating for more than a month that she is already.... you can guess. Did you know if you said that in TN you could be arrested? Good punishment, as she did wake up from coma, signed papers (thumb impressions) and make statements even though no one in the general public saw her. Well one should never believe in or spread rumors anyway.

Why am I saying it? Because, there are tons of it floating around. Remember as kids we were told to be scared of the "budda-baba" (old man) kind of bogey-man? Our PM is the latest Old/Bogey man. He is coming after your cash, your gold, your property, here and overseas. Some of my friends asked why not after the wives, cause if it was not for them, a man would never need cash, gold or property; just like our wise PM who has become a billionaire - receiving a billion or more blessings of his people. Well his ministers (at least) some of them would put a lot of billionaires to shame, Mr. Trump included.

Mr. Trump, looks like he has become a Modi fan too. He too has decided to fill his cabinet with billionaires. (Guys, every cabinet is not that of booze and cash). However, the true credit for starting this trend goes to our former PM, the one who regained his voice after a hiatus of some ten years. I asked a few people if they would give our PM five more years after the current term? Well most said they would promise to give him ten more if he lets them survive until 2019 elections. Why won't he? After all it looks like this nation is full of honest people, event the dishonest ones. Everyone seems to be returning the Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes to the banks, irrespective how they were earned. The banking system is worried that at the rate at which it is collecting money, all of the Rs 1.4 trillion in circulation will come back. Some fear even more, and the trouble is not much of it is fake as per the machines. See, we were all wrong in casting doubts about the men and women in white being corrupt. No wonder they are not looking troubled in any way.

Lastly, some 220 million people of this Country will become millionaires via the "Jan Dhan" (people's wealth) scheme. How aptly was it named . How? Am I going to tell you everything? Don't you follow the news? The PM had promised that every Indian household will get Rs 1.5 million when he gets the culprits to surrender their ill gotten wealth. There, you have it. Now if you did not open a Jan Dhan account, and haven't received your share, then it's your own bloody fault. What? You called me a liar?

In this country, everyone speaks the truth and nothing but the truth, even if it is an inconvenient one.

* If you don't understand the meaning - don't read it

Monday, November 21, 2016

The Rolling Rs of RERA (real estate regulatory act)

If last year belonged to endless debates on REITs (in India), this year (2016) had another R creating rumbles in the real estate sector. Widely hailed as the disciplinary stick to rein in the ills that the cowed consumer had had to suffer at the hands of the unscrupulous players of the real estate industry; be it a broker or a builder; and at the same time protect the nice guys of the industry from the cantankerous consumers, the Real Estate Regulatory Act (RERA) was gazetted in the Parliament on the 25th of March 2016.

I was expecting a cheer as loud as a sonic boom, but if there was one, I must have missed it. We (Indians) are so good at debating that time is never of the essence, accordingly, the 31st October deadline for submission of the draft rules by each of the States and Union Territories has been pushed to 31st March 2017. As a consumer, I would have thought that RERA would have forced the creation of a uniform law with uniform standards across the nation so that I could purchase real estate anywhere without having to keep track of the hundreds of exceptions and differences that pop up from State to State. You guessed it; as always, a new law is born, but the old ones on the same subject haven't been killed yet. Parallel laws means use and abuse of all. As a result, each State has the prerogative to frame its own set of REAR rules based on the offered guidelines. Why? The wisest answer I have heard is that a uniform code will shake the boat a bit too much for a seamless shift. Moreover, one has to account for local nuances, after all, even God in his infinite wisdom did not create equal sized fingers for the same hand.

In any event, something is certainly better than nothing I suppose. Once in force, starting May 2017, I as a consumer and the highest risk taker, do have the following rights across the length and breadth of this Country:

1. All projects new and old (incomplete) shall have to register with a RERA prescribed Competent Authority. Exceptions... trust me there are, allowing existing projects to escape the net.
2. The builder/developer (B/D) shall park 70% of the payments received from the buyer in an earmarked escrow account and draw funds proportionate to completion schedule and used only for that specific project. You will not like it. If the builder has purchased the land then the land cost may be drawn from the advanced amount. This is such a laugh knowing that land accounts for more than 50% cost in most projects and the builder's completion schedule collects 85% on the completion of RCC structure itself, leaving only 15% for finishing the building.
3. A (B/D) shall not market the project before receiving all requisite permissions to commence construction and completion of the project. Factually, a builder/developer gets only temporary permissions to build a certain portion of the overall permissible construct area in order to monitor the quality and quantity constructed has not violated norms. So does the (B/D) have a right to market the entire project up front?
4. A (B/D) cannot handover a unit as complete without obtaining the completion/occupancy certificate so as to ensure that the buyer has purchased a fully compliant unit with the requisite utility connections. Delays will cost B/D interest and/or penalties which could include imprisonment. If followed to the tee, I can visualize (B/D) being bullied by those with the power of the pen to jump off from the highest terrace or pay up special fees for accepting their claim.
5. Units would be sold on the "carpet" area basis, would come with a 5 year no-defect warranty, and title insurance. Great. the definition of carpet area is different from State to State; the warranty clauses would be so tightly worded that even a single nail to hold a photo frame would void it; and title insurance, no insurance company has had the guts to even propose it until now.

Oh! I forgot. By Country I meant its urban areas only. So most of Goa, where development is regulated by the "panchayat" is out of the RERA ambit. Can I as a consumer be blamed for my stoicism?

Yes, it's trying to do good, including making it mandatory for brokers to accept responsibility for the goods they hawk as well. A broker cannot earn fees for a service that can be described as "introduction". The brokers would henceforth have to register themselves, prove a level of knowledge competence, and do their own project due-diligence before going out in the market as salespersons. The view from this set of people is that the effect of RERA will drive up costs and lower sales in an already hurting industry.

The B/D community is livid though. It feels that RERA is completely one sided. From its point of view, the government may as well shut down private real estate development and hand it over to the public/social sector. On one hand RERA seeks to address consumer oppression by the few rotten eggs in the B/D community, but there is no recourse for the good apples in B/D fraternity from the ever increasing choking grip of those wielding the pens of permission, greedy politicians, the underworld as well as the supply chain mafia. It's easy for the world to generalize and label the entire B/D world as profiteering blood suckers, but is there a realization how many fronts its has to fend from buying land to clearing it of encroachments and title defects; from getting approvals for site development to utility and infrastructure connections; from procurement of construction material to meeting with a plethora of changing environmental regulations; not to mention meeting the demands of all the silent partners without whose forced protection the projects would never see completion date. Yeah! it's a hard life and a ride in a Bentley or Rolls is just a small incentive to endure all this crap.

True, those who were in just for the joyride of power, prestige and profit have started jumping ship. Independent Directors of many listed and unlisted RE companies have sent in resignations; Private Equity has started rewriting contract terms to distance itself from being classified as developer/promoter even in the quasi sense; Non Banking Financial Corps (NBFCs) rediscovering their core objectives as retail lenders and not mezzanine financiers to projects. The biggest worry for any builder/developer today is that would the concept of "off-plan" sales just disappear in favour of finished goods?

The 70% escrow clause may just shut off some of the marketing gimmicks like the 10:80:10 or such permutations and combinations where the consumer was suckered to lend his/her balance sheet to the builder for cheap debt. Funds for project - be it debt or equity would be an issue, a big one, specially with the RERA applicable uncertainties. The demon of demonetization may have skipped the clever rich, but the average buyer having less than the required share of common sense has been impacted enough to shy away from squandering the ill gotten wealth on buying "invisible" property. Reporting norms will make it tough to conceal facts from anyone. The funding community has a different take. "Crocodile tears" is what they call it. If nations like the UAE can work with consumer protection laws similar to RERA, and the very same who complain here thrive there, then there is something wrong.

First, the concept that anyone can become a builder/developer must go. Lot of fallen and badly constructed buildings support that view. The 'Bentley" builder must give up greed and deploy profits in development rather than land grab to create an artificial scarcity. The industry needs and will see more organized - strong balance sheet players who can take on the might of those who abuse their power in an unjustified manner.

Hey! did anyone mention GST in all this? No, cause conveniently, it's a pass through tax and the consumer will bear it with a forced grin. They asked for "Acche Din" with GST and they got it good. The B/D guys are only upset that it will not enjoy the benefit of claiming back some of that tax.

While RERA may have set many a rectums roaring, will the purge be good for all in the long run? Unlikely- why?

Will RERA or GST or the kill bill on black money affect the RE sector? Unlikely.

Will it impact prices downward? Unlikely.

Will it protect the consumer? Unlikely.

Will it punish those who unnecessarily hold up project clearances? Unlikely.

Will it bring down corruption? Most Unlikely?

Will it discipline the players of this segment including consumer? Unlikely.

The reason was right there at the start. It's just another layer of fabric that fails to address the basic issue of uniformity or transparency either coherently or comprehensively at a national level. To that extent the B/D community is right in saying 'Why just us? Make those who regulate this industry accountable too."

I pray to be proven wrong.

Pic Credit: Economic Times

Delhi arrest in late possession case raises flat buyers’ hopes

Swati Deshpande | TNN | Jan 16, 2016, 11.13 PM IST

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Let's get TOD* here (*Transit Oriented Development)

The shift of homo-sapiens from being one more animal species inhabiting planet earth to establishing supremacy by becoming "civilized" has lot to do with Man's desire to move around a fair bit. In the earliest of times, rivers became the first expressways to explore new places to inhabit. Examples of such mighty civilizations include the Indus valley (Indus), Babylonian (Tigress and Euphrates), Mesopotamian (Nile), Huang-He (Yellow River). River based civilizations then made way for even mightier ones by the sea. To this date, most modern mega cities have become what they are, thanks to being critical transportation hubs for one form of transport or the other.

From a national perspective, the development opportunity along the 5 Industrial Corridors namely the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC); Bengaluru- Mumbai Economic Corridor (BMEC); Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor (CBIC); Visakhapatnam-Chennai Industrial Corridor (VCIC) and Amritsar-Kolkata Industrial Corridor (AKIC) has caught the attention of the global development community as it has attracted major financial commitments from Japan, China, Korea, World Bank, Asian Development Bank. However, it could end up either as a boon or bane in terms of how development is allowed to take shape along it. Add to that, the top 30 Indian cities are already implementing some form of Rapid Transport Systems be it a Metro, Bus-Rail, Light Rail, Monorail, Train and Tram services to move the vast number of inhabitants from one place to the other within the city itself, as well as ease the pressure on the internal road infrastructure; which in many of these cities has reached critical limits for expansion and the amount of traffic it can handle. Obviously, these developments too present opportunities for building development, given that most of the cities implementing these projects want to recover cost of the land acquisition by granting super development rights to private enterprise - for a fat charge.

Now for some fun facts that I learned from an Authority on Transportation**.

Pic Credit: Motorbeam

As on date INDIA has some 3 km of Mass Rapid Transit System per million people as against 12 km in Brazil, and 70 km in France. China has some 9 km but at the rate at which it is adding, the number will change to double by 2020. A City like Mumbai has over 2000 km of motor-able roads (whatever that means given its state) that are close to density saturation, that is, with just 5% of its population using any form of private motor vehicle including the 2 wheeled ones. Ah! It does have the highest vehicle density per km of road, but the best part is that with some 2.7+ million vehicles today, Mumbai does not even make it to the top 5 in India in terms of vehicle population. In any event, the situation will just get worse with some 200,000 (average) new registrations each year in the Greater Mumbai zone.

Pic Credit: Motorbeam

Let's first define what constitutes a TOD:

"A transit-oriented development (TOD) is a mixed-use residential and commercial area designed to maximize access to public transport, and often incorporates features to encourage transit ridership while dissuading the ownership of automobiles.^[1] A TOD neighborhood typically has a center with a transit station or stop (train station, metro station, tram stop, or bus stop), surrounded by relatively high-density development with progressively lower-density development spreading outward from the center. TODs generally are located within a radius of one-quarter to one-half mile (400 to 800 m) from a transit stop, as this is considered to be an appropriate scale for pedestrians, thus solving the last mile commute problem."

Pic Credit Times of India

This definition has been accepted by planners in India too in most parts. But, the very definition of TOD contradicts the reality on the ground in terms of ownership of motor vehicles. To address this issue, the Urban Development Authority of Delhi, the city with the highest number of vehicles, has set up guidelines, that propose limiting the number of vehicles by creating multi-storied parking lots with dynamic high priced parking. It is interesting to note that ever increasing price of fuel had not been able to wean away car owners from using their cars, and now with oil prices down, the use of vehicles will shoot up in all probability. Incidentally, in an effort to make the City of London car free, the planners approved a maximum of 47 car parking spots (of which 30 are reserved for the deferentially abled) for UK's tallest building (87 floors, 300+ m) "The Shard", and this is not some fact from Ripley's "believe it or not". Maybe, just maybe, the planners will recognize and cure it.

The definition of TOD includes "mixed use residential" and not mixed use as commonly understood. It means that for creating the required diversity essential for an eco-systems to thrive, the residential component itself would consist of mix use which include the Economically Weaker sections (EWS), Low Income Groups (LIG) and Middle income Group (MIG) populations. Fortunately, there is no difference of opinion on this definition within our planning community either, and most TOD areas have been zoned with a higher than normal build density to make the land cost in the high real estate cost environment of most Indian cities economically viable for building for the lesser affording groups. However, having done their fair bit, the nodal agencies would, in a true sense of Public-Private partnership, entrust the job of executing the plans to private developers, for whom the definition of EWS in their own sense stands for "Richie Rich - the poor little rich boy". Higher density development means more profits at the highest price a unit can command in the area, and often enough, the TODs are planned in some of the most expensive real estate on earth. Would it be any different if executed by the Public sector enterprise? Not impossible, despite the obvious red flags that one has come to associate with its ability to deliver the same.

Answers are tough, but the need is real, especially with India staring at an astronomical proportion of its population dreaming of living in urban forests. There are sane voices that say that SMART cities should be planned on TOD principles minus the automobiles, and saner voices calling for de-motorization of the big 10 cities by diverting money from building additional roads, bridges and by-passes to investing in more public transport infrastructure - along with setting up a comprehensive TOD guideline for high density vertical build structures; at the same time, decreasing or keeping at par the build density in other areas.

Elsewhere in the developed world, self-driven - eco-friendly fuel powered - micro vehicles are being thought of as people movers; and, it has my vote for the transportation planning of SMART cities. For larger cities, I guess each has its own unique problem based on geography, and a one stick rule may not necessarily work. Having said that, the principles of TODs for public good can only be successfully achieved at a much lower level of corruption. Going by the current situation, it would end up creating a bigger and more unmanageable monster city.

** Ms Shreya Gadepalli - Director South Asia - Institute for Transportation and Development Policy.

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Technology Impact: In Built Construction

Pic Credit:
http://www.indiaoutsidemywindow.com/2007_08_01_archive.html

A couple of months back, I looked out of my corner office's bay window, to observe the construction activity in progress on an adjacent site. Yes, I had nothing better to do, and yes such observations can be meditative too, but that's a different story. The building being constructed was not very large, and the casting of the terrace slab was underway. Close to 50 labourers and 2 batch mixers were in furious action in kind of an assembly line that could best be described as organised chaos. I could see that in some batches there was excess of one component or the other and in some short. The end product was concrete alright, but inconsistent enough to make me wonder if this building would be warranted by the builder for defects for even 5 years. The swank looking multi-storied building where I had my office was built by the same builder-developer and I had my question answered right away. Thank God, we had opted for a short lease, this good looking building from the outside had major quality issues that were showing up on the inside.

While I may generalize that most developers are not conscientious of quality build, there are quite a few who have started adopted new build technologies, even if it means higher construction cost but results in faster and better quality build. Altruistic as it may sound, the higher cost would be transferred to the buyer, the faster build would improve the developer's financial IRR, and good quality would mean a happy customer and lesser post hand over defect liability (which is now being made mandatory under RERA). Even so, by and large, the construction industry has been a slow adopter of technology that matters in improving systems and processes to provide certified and warranted quality end product.

Image result for technology on construction site

Pic Credit:
http://www.duralift.com.au/how-technology-is-changing-construction/

Use of satellite and laser mapping, drones to monitor construction sites, CCTV cameras for security, smart wearable-s to measure productivity, blue prints on tablets, inventory updates and measurement tables on apps, creating 3-D Augmented and Virtual Reality simulations to market the developments are some of the innovations that are slowly but surely paving their way into the Indian construction industry. But technology without relevant and uniform data is useless. As of now, starting from land records to offsite-onsite plans speak differently at different places. One cannot say with certainty at what stage the projects (be it big or small) are at leave alone determine accurate project costs incurred. If you want to test this, try and research 10 projects (any size) that have been completed before time and below cost. On the other hand one would need a million fingers to count off those that have exceeded time and cost budgets. The answer is really simple. Measures employed to save costs actually turn out to be counter productive because there is no seamless data flowing through to the different constituents involved. As a result of the above; from an equity, debt or purchaser's point of view; there is no clarity as to what has been paid for. The patience in the system to not ask dirty questions is purely a function of forward sale and paucity of finished goods that has been the norm until now. The ground situation has changed and it's time construction methods and standards too.

Pic Credit:
http://www.treehugger.com/urban-design/vertical-city-viable-solution-sustainable-living.html

Vertical cities. With an ever growing population, there is always going to be a pressure on land, driving prices higher and higher to the point of negative economics. The experiment of large acreage satellite townships is giving way to newer design paradigms. Building self contained vertical townships that occupy lesser footprint and accommodate a higher number of people, thereby decreasing the pressure on mobility and the availability of critical open spaces necessary to achieve a certain quality of life. Extremely tall buildings are no longer in the realm of science fiction. Burj Khalifa may not remain the tallest building in the world in just a few years. The average height of skyscrapers in Mumbai has shot up from 12 floors to some 30. If regulations permitted, most buildings would touch the highest technically feasible (hopefully) threshold. The next frontier in building technology would be 3-D printing of construction material, on and offsite, to provide customization. Most building would opt for becoming full or almost off-grid in terms of most utilities. Water recycling, waste management, solar power generating exteriors, photo-chromatic energy saving glass, heat pump air-conditioning, carbon absorbing walls and green houses and other such wonders are all available but expensive technologies that are getting cheaper by the day, just like solar and wind power. Would vertical cities be the answer to sustainable and smart living? That depends on how smart one is in visualizing the future. If this is impossible then inhabiting Mars in 2030 is further than impossible. But the word impossible is impossible itself with VTOL and scramjet commercial airliners, flying cars, robotic walking suits, and space travel all threatening to be commercially available by year 2020.

image courtesy: http://www.audiotech.com/trends-magazine/images/articles/2014/10/pg36.png

So much for the future, back on the ground, what do we do now? For one, do the mundane, like build a reliable data base not just of "big data" but "small data". Just to give you a sense of proportions, an average construction of 100,000 ft2 requires 10,000+ components. Then from a due diligence point of view, there is lot that technology can do. Be it land records, to ownership of flats, to buy/sell transaction reporting in the primary and secondary space, to accurate valuations. Standardization is an other issue that could be cured. Then consider offering funding, measuring utility consumption as micro audits, house maintenance and security, there is so much to be done. Remember IOT (Internet of Things) is not as far away as we think. With the economy hopefully shifting gear towards greater transparency in transactions, the existing and new portals for buying/selling/renting real estate should become actual experiential and seamless transaction sites, and not just a place to browse and collect information for improving one's market knowledge and offline negotiation. Yes, it will throw up new issues as is always the case with whatever mankind creates, but with every problem, there is seemingly a solution or two too.

Pic credit:
http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/delhi/delhi-traffic-police-get-masks-to-beat-delhi-dust/

Hopefully, by 2030, we would not have killed planet earth and in turn ourselves by misuse of technology, which could mean anything' from destroying nations, cities and homes with wars on each other or deciding to build nations, cities and homes incorrectly continuing our war with the environment of this planet we stay on.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

The Future : Sustainable Cities & Smart People

Early morning yesterday, as I stood in a long line, thankfully not an ATM outside a bank; but in the prefunction area of the Grand Ballroom at a leading 5 star hotel, to register myself for the RICS conference themed "The Turning Point In Built Environment", all I could hear in the gathering was talk of the recent demonetization of large currency notes and the story of its impact on the person narrating it.

Mind well, the room was filled with a lot of professionals, businessmen, consultants and developers from the Indian Real Estate fraternity, and for most of them, their life had already "turned" with the service of what the Prime Minister termed his "Bitter Strong Tea" in the hope of making this Nation of ours "Better and Sweet". It's no secret that Indian real estate industry, right from land acquisition to sale of finished goods is run on a heavy dose of unaccounted cash (black money), and, it would be obvious to assume that this industry would be one of the worst hit. It comes at a time when the industry is already struggling with sluggish sales in the residential and retail segment, which in turn has started impacting cash flow and project completion. In addition, the introduction of the "REAL ESTATE REGULATORY ACT" (RERA) Act and the imposition of Goods and Services Tax (GST) has had many developers scramble to the offices of learned consultants, to understand the consequences of the fine print ramifications.

Normally, the mix of people at such a conference by RICS is quite well balanced. This time around there was a visible absence of mid to large size developers (and I am not discussing their physical weight here). One can assume they had better things to do in life, like figure out how to operate the laundry machine; or take a well deserved break from having operated it already. With no news of some well known names checking into hospitals or occupying prominent space in the obituary columns, then, a wild guess would suggest that the latest "surgical strike"; that is now a part of every Indian's vocabulary, was not really the world's best kept secret; and/or the people it intended to net were, as Yogi Bear would say, smarter than the "average bear"; and/or the people being labeled as practitioners of corruption, are honestly not corrupt. It's never good to assume or pay attention to rumors even when it seems like they are laden with hard and undeniable facts, maybe even tbe truth. In India, it's best to behave like the 3 monkeys rolled into one, so as to neither see, hear or speak of the evil prevailing around. So, let me move on to the what I had come to attend this conference for, learn, and learn I did.

Did you know that building construction activity contributes to producing 40% of the global carbon footprint? Or that it chomps up nearly 30% of the energy produced? Or that it drinks up more than 30% of the available fresh water? In a populous nation like India, the consequences of this activity is even much higher including destruction of natural landscapes, consumption of God knows how much wood, forced conversion of agricultural land into land suited for construction, and the release of deadly toxins other than carbon into the air we breathe. Now put this in context of the 100+ SMART cities to be built in this Country. Scary, don't you think?

Today, India has some 40% of its population of 1.2 billion, that is around 480 million people living in Cities. By 2030, that number goes up to a staggering 600 million. That is, assuming the percentage does not go any higher and a hope that the population does not exceed 1.5 billion. A city like Mumbai and Delhi have higher populations than a nation as big as Australia. With a lot of developed nations revisiting immigration policies shipping Indians out may be a concern. I am not sure if even space travel would be evolved enough to ship people out of this planet in thousands leave alone millions. If one was to take a bird's eye view of Indian cities big and small, assuming you could see through the smog, one would notice filth and chaos, not to mention the noise and rage, the lack of basic utilities and broken or abused infrastructure. China built hundreds of cities to contain urban migration, but ended up with ghost towns. In a sharp reversal of policy to create compact self sufficient cities, it s now focused on building "Super Mega" cities to accommodate 100 million + people. Will India's experiment with its 100+ SMART cities end up the same way? I can easily imagine Pune becoming a burb of Mumbai within a decade.

SMART Cities are for those who have a higher than average level of education and a respect for civic sense. Educated in India, there are many; but possession of civic sense is highly questionable even with the rich. Lower down the strata, there are people who need to go back to taking potty training classes, and this is not being said as a bad joke. Any Indian train or aircraft toilet is a testament to this fact. "Sulabh Sauchalyas" (Convenience Public Toilets) use, one cannot fathom it, as it's hard to enter them unless one has lost the use of olfactory senses. Let's be positive, and take it (not assume) that the "Swacch Bharat" (Clean India) initiative will show results, even though it looks like going nowhere as of now, India being a recent signatory to the "Paris Climate Agreement" may have to rethink its plans for such grand scale developments based on commitments given, which may be hard to adhere to given the on the ground reality.

Cities are important. They are social structures, engines of growth and prosperity, and therefore magnets. Do we then need SMART cities or "Sustainable" cities planned intelligently - with the right combination of infrastructure, resource and space management; built with smart techniques that lower scarce resource requirements; are less polluting when built and non polluting when inhabited. Being SMART is just a component of smart planning. If this has to be achieved, there has to be a complete see change in the education process of the next generation to be able to correctly build, maintain, use and not abuse what is being created. In short build smart people first that understand the concept of sustainability and smartness will automatically follow.

In the meantime, I am collecting enough money to buy myself a ticket to the moon.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

The day of WhiteMight.

Tuesday 8th November, the United States of America went to vote. As the people of the strongest democracy in the world were headed to the polling booths, to exercise their right to elect a new leader, the people of the world's largest democracy were shaken up by a news flash from their own leader.

No longer was the American election of any consequence as the matter on hand. At exactly 8 pm, the PM (Prime Minister) of India, Mr N Modi announced that from midnight that day, the existing currency notes in the denomination of Rs 1000 and Rs 500 would no longer be accepted as legal tender. Within 48 hours fresh currency notes would be circulated with certain checks and balances in an attempt to flush out people holding large amounts of undeclared cash; "black money" as it is commonly called in India.

By 9 pm Indian time, social media was rife with updates, rumours, rants, videos and jokes. It was kind of amazing, that in less than 30 minutes of the PM concluding his speech so much creative quality content could be generated. There was true excitement. For the first time in Indian history, post independence, had a PM taken such a bold step in an out an out war on cash hoarders, criminals, counterfeiters, and indirectly terror. The timing of the event was no less than the armed surgical strike authorised by him last month, on the terror camps hosted by our neighbour Pakistan.

The night saw utter chaos in India as people scrambled to lose as many of the currency notes they could, wherever permissible.

The Indian 9/11 (9th November)

The Indian Nation was in for a twin shock, the first, Donald Trump had crossed the magic 270 to become the most unpopular President-elect in the history of the USA; the Bombay Stock Exchange dived 1689 points within minutes of opening. No one in India cared much for other news including oil falling nearly 3% to US$ 44.82 per barrel. Gas stations, grocery stores, medical facilities and banks had lines resembling Venezuela, as did the overnight inflation in gold, though reasons were different. Inconvenienced yes, but people were, by and large, supportive of the PM's move, as they were of Trump's victory, and I am not being sarcastic here. Even the developers of the 5 Trump Towers in India were smiling knowing that the expensive non-moving inventory would sell out in a few days now despite the attack by the PM on "black".

Don's victory is being attributed to the possibility of a surge in white votes going his way, and Modi is counting on the fact that people of his Nation will transact more with "white" notes (money). Don's exceptionally mature speech to work for all of America did not win him too many fans, looking at the number of protests on the street in his own nation. Modi's exceptionally well planned move now appears less and less potent in the way the community holding the largest amount of cash have reacted (or rather remained unumoved and/or unaffected). The common (non white) man is scared in America, as is the common (non white money) man in India, albeit for different reasons.

Will Don succed in making America "Great" again? Will Modi succed in making India "Great" again? I don't have an answer. I wasn't a fan of Trump or Modi, still 'am not, but I do have a lot of respect for their grit in doing what they set out to do, despite the odds. Best wishes to both the Men (Gentle - they cretainly are not) on what they have set out to do. I wonder if President Duterte has an endearing term for both of them. The world wants to know (said the way Arnav Goswami would).

BUSINESS » MARKETS

November 9, 2016

Updated: November 9, 2016 12:49 IST

Sensex crashes 1,689 points on black money crackdown, U.S. election

Meet the Indian who is helping Donald Trump get the winning numbers in Arizona

By ECONOMICTIMES.COM | Updated: Jul 29, 2016, 04.23 PM IST

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump for President of The USI.

Dear Mr Trump,

In about a week, the people of The United States of America will decide if you should be their President, hence the leader of much of the free thinking world. As of now, theoretically, the odds are stacked against you. But, that's been the view from the time you jumped into this race, and despite what many may call, umpteen attempts of shooting yourself in the foot, you have reached a stage where you could actually make the White House your home for the next 4 years.

Hypothetically, let's just assume you lose; I know you hate it, what do you do? It will be hard for you to going back to being just another also-ran billionaire real estate tycoon. I think most billionaires in the world; and there happen to be a lot of Middle Eastern, Chinese, Russian, Indian, Nigerian, Mexican ones, who will think twice before doing business with you, given your expression of hate for their origins, and your new found abilities as a politician and double-speaker of half truths. We both know that half-truth is nothing but a well-disguised lie. Hosting beauty pageants and reality shows is really out of the question too, don't you think? The way this election race has been run, one cannot even push the scenario of vindictive politics aside. It will be another 4 years of wait I suppose, 'cause I don't think your present opponent will serve an additional term for one of many reasons, the obvious being that she is the one-eyed queen in a blind race. But then, who knows. There could be formidable challengers standing against you from your own Republican party, leave alone the Democrats. Hmm, does not look too good a scenario.

From a global perspective, you don't have too many supporters either. There is a fear that your "Let's Make America Great Again" actually means "Let's make the world unstable again". Not that your opponent rocks, but if the world had a voice in this election, you would lose the race by more than a mile. See it this way, she is the "deep blue sea" in terms of choice, whereas you are the... I am sure you have that figured too. The only group who would truly be saddened by your loss would be the ones you actually hate; the men in black from the Middle East. They would so love to have you running America, no better ambassador for their cause than you in pushing recruits into their fold.

In a lot of ways, what you have proposed actually makes sense, but the way you want to go about doing it is giving everyone a serious heartburn. No matter what America and even the world may think of you, there is one nation where you are revered as a kind hero, of course, after its present Prime Minister, India. In fact, in July of 2017, the term of the Indian President comes to an end, and you could certainly make a bid for that seat. Don't worry if you are a foreigner, you could be naturalised in less than a month, people from across our border do that all the time, and quite a few for far more nefarious reasons that undermine our national security. Stopping them could itself be your calling card to becoming Citizen No. 1 of this Nation. You have already won the emotional sorts here (politically incorrect to call them right wing activists) with your "Ab ki baar Trump Sarkar" just like our PM did not so long ago.

Pic Credit: Activists of Hindu Sena perform a special prayer to ensure a victory of Trump in the upcoming elections, in New Delhi on Wednesday. Photograph: Anindito Mukherjee/Reuters

The White House, what is it? Nothing larger than the outhouse of our Rashtrapati Bhavan, the largest Presidential accommodation in the world built on 320 acres of prime land in Delhi as compared to the former's 18 acres in Washington DC. You are a real estate developer, where would you rather stay bro? In India, insulting, misbehaving with or even groping women is not a taboo, especially for politicians.

PRIVELGES ACCORDED TO PRESIDENT OF INDIA

The other matters for which you were being grilled, they are such petty matters here, not even worth a front page story in the lousiest newspaper. You may have a hard time talking about policies that hurt your next door neighbours Canada, Mexico, and your neighbour across the Pacific, China, but there is no problem here if you come up with disparaging and derogatory statements against any of the neighbours, it's the done thing, all the time, even they do it, it's called sledging and we are all sporting enough to take it on the chin. Real Estate is big here, your "gyan" (knowledge) on this sector and tax matters will be so useful to the businessmen here. By the way, every building project franchised by you is already sold out. Your name is a hit. Think of it, virtually every important building built in your reign can sport your name...Trump Airport, Trump Smart-City, Trump Cruise terminal, Trump International airport, Trump Expressway, possibilities endless including a grand statute costing US dollars half a billion or more. You made a casino called Taj Mahal, but India has the real thing. Think of making Agra the Atlantic City of India, your relatives can officially become partners in every business enterprise set up there. Best part, you would not have to invest even a single US dollar or Rupee even.

Pic Credit: Make India great again. (Adnan Abidi/Reuters)

If you became the President of The USA, you would have to suffer endless precious hours over domestic and international policy matters, debates at Capitol Hill, deal with dissidence within your own team, and many such avoidables. Won't be easy saying "You are fired" each time someone disagrees with you. In the end, you will end up as a villain for all. In India, all these matters are handled by the Prime Minister's office leaving the President to pursue matters "close to the heart", and that has a very wide scope. There is so much you can do here like "Make India Great Again", so much better sounding than just "Make in India".

Surely, by just having you here, the entire Republican party would be so grateful to us that it would fight for India in Capitol Hill to grant it any and all concessions it wants on climate control, manufacture of advanced weaponry, as well as arm-twist China into accepting us as a full member of the NSG, and, (let me catch my breath), fulfill many more such wonderful dreams. We have an accomplished Vice Presidential running mate already in place, and he has so many similar traits that you would think of him as a twin lost at birth.

Do keep me in mind as an advisor or something if you take up this suggestion. Just think of it, Donald Trump… President… The United States of India… well yes… I know... your chances for the US Presidency just got better... unless of course, the Democrats do something unusual like BRING BERNIE BACK. Now, what are chances of that happening... right?

Regards and best wishes for the election day, and God please save America.

PS: I am not pandering to your ego for a migration visa. With such lousy tax laws in your Country, I am sincerely better off here. If you do make it as the President of the USA, then do remember, we Indians spend a lot of money shopping and holidaying in your Country, please don't spoil that for us.

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It's a SNAFU - 2016

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